Influences of reservoir water level drawdown on slope stability and reliability analysis

Abstract

To investigate the influences of reservoir water level drawdown on slope stability, a series of numerical simulations were carried out to examine the impacts of slope angle, slope permeability and water drawdown speed on the pore water pressure (PWP) change during seepage, as well as the factor of safety (Fs) of the slope. Based on the numerical results, an estimation model relating the factor of safety to the influential factors mentioned above was developed. The model expression indicates that there are interaction effects between the slope angle, the drawdown speed and the slope permeability, with regard to the influences on slope stability. Furthermore, in view of the uncertainty characteristics of the slope permeability, reliability assessment was performed to examine the influences of those key parameters mentioned above on the probability of slope failure.