Tax reform evaluation using nonparametric methods Sweden 1980 - 1991

Abstract

This paper evaluates the tax reform carried out in Sweden between 1980 and 1991. We use a recently developed non-parametric estimation technique to account for the labor supply responses of married prime aged males. We decompose the tax reform to study how the separate components influence hours of work, tax revenue, and income distribution. We find that the decrease in marginal tax rates stimulated labor supply but that the other parts of the reform counteracted this effect. The net increase in average desired hours of work was approximately 2%. We also find that the reform was under financed and that inequality increased. The non-parametric predictions are compared to the results based on a flexible parametric model. The qualitative results are similar, but the quantitative results are quite different.