ALTERNATIVE FORMS OF PRICE EXPECTATIONS IN SUPPLY ANALYSIS FOR U.S. CORN AND SOYBEAN ACREAGES

Abstract

The consequences of frequently used price expectation models are analyzed by comparing the responsiveness of U.S. corn and soybean acreages to six alternative formulations. The trade-off between bias and variance associated with these forecasts is investigated. The results of this study have important implications for future research on supply analysis.