The Water-Energy-Food Nexus in the Middle East and North Africa : Scenarios for a Sustainable Future

Abstract

Water, energy, and agriculture have been
\n conventionally dealt with separately in investment planning.
\n For each of these sectors, regulatory frameworks,
\n organizations, and infrastructures have been put in place to
\n address sector-specific challenges and demands. As the
\n Middle East and North Africa works towards building a more
\n sustainable future, a nexus approach that considers the
\n risks and synergies among these sectors is needed. To
\n demonstrate the added value of a nexus approach, this report
\n applies scenario analysis and integrated assessment
\n modelling of the water-energy-food nexus to the Middle East
\n and North Africa. The analysis finds that water scarcity
\n increases in all countries in the region over the coming
\n decades, mostly due to growing demands. More importantly,
\n the analysis finds that many countries in the region could
\n run out of fossil groundwater by 2050 unless measures to
\n curb unsustainable abstraction are implemented. The impacts
\n of growing scarcity on agriculture are significant, with
\n production projected to drop by 60 by 2050 in some
\n countries. On the upside, reducing the dependence of the
\n agricultural and energy sectors on water and transitioning
\n to renewable energies can reduce water scarcity, at the same
\n time reducing greenhouse gas emissions. This report is
\n targeted to policy makers, the academic community, and a
\n wider global audience interested in exploring the
\n interactions between water, agriculture, and energy.