Viewpoint: When Will AI Exceed Human Performance? Evidence from AI Experts

TLDR

Advances in AI will transform modern life by reshaping transportation, health, science, finance, and the military. The study aims to help public policy adapt by surveying machine learning researchers on their beliefs about AI progress. Researchers predict AI will outperform humans in many tasks within the next decade—e.g., language translation by 2024, high‑school essays by 2026, truck driving by 2027, retail work by 2031, bestselling books by 2049, surgery by 2053—while estimating a 50% chance of AI surpassing humans in all tasks in 45 years and automating all jobs in 120 years, with Asian respondents expecting earlier dates. The results will inform discussion among researchers and policymakers about anticipating and managing AI trends.

Abstract


 
 
 
 Advances in artificial intelligence (AI) will transform modern life by reshaping transportation, health, science, finance, and the military. To adapt public policy, we need to better anticipate these advances. Here we report the results from a large survey of machine learning researchers on their beliefs about progress in AI. Researchers predict AI will outperform humans in many activities in the next ten years, such as translating languages (by 2024), writing high-school essays (by 2026), driving a truck (by 2027), working in retail (by 2031), writing a bestselling book (by 2049), and working as a surgeon (by 2053). Researchers believe there is a 50% chance of AI outperforming humans in all tasks in 45 years and of automating all human jobs in 120 years, with Asian respondents expecting these dates much sooner than North Americans. These results will inform discussion amongst researchers and policymakers about anticipating and managing trends in AI.
 
 
 This article is part of the special track on AI and Society.