Prediction of gestational diabetes mellitus in the Born in Guangzhou Cohort Study, China

Abstract

OBJECTIVE: To assess potential risk factors in identifying women at risk for gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM). METHODS: The present study included data collected as part of a prospective cohort study, and included women with singleton pregnancies who underwent initial prenatal examination at a tertiary women and children's hospital in Guangzhou, China between February 1, 2012, and December 31, 2015. Maternal characteristics and medical history were investigated to evaluate associations with GDM. A risk factor scoring system for the prediction of GDM was generated using logistic regression. RESULTS: Overall, 1129 (13.5%) of 8381 women were diagnosed with GDM. Women older than 35 years had a 3.95-fold increased risk of GDM (95% confidence interval 2.80-5.58) compared with women aged 16-25 years; obese women had a 6.54-fold higher risk (95% confidence interval 3.50-12.23) compared with underweight women. A risk scoring system was established based on age, body mass index, family history of diabetes, weight gain, and history of GDM. Screening for women with a score of 12 or more would have reduced the number undergoing oral glucose tolerance testing by 2131 (25.4%) patients with a sensitivity of 87% for GDM detection. CONCLUSION: The assessment of risk factors for GDM could provide a foundation for improving risk-based screening strategies in this and similar populations.