Eastern Mediterranean Health Journal · 2018 · 28 citations · 8 references
Social SciencesDemographyPopulation Health SciencesEpidemiologic MethodsEpidemiologyPopulation HealthCause-specific MortalityMortality AnalysisMortality EstimationPopulation AgingPopulation ChangeVital RatesDeath Rate AnalysisDeath RatesLee-carter ModelLee-carter Mortality ModelMortality Profile AnalysisPopulation Mortality ModelingPopulation Mortality PatternsSex-age Structure
BACKGROUND: The Islamic Republic of Iran has encountered demographic and epidemiological changes as a result of the transformation of health measures. AIMS: This study aimed to calculate the population and mortality in the Islamic Republic of Iran during the years 2006 to 2035. METHODS: We carried out a cross-sectional analytical-descriptive account. We calculated the age and sex structure of the Iranian population using census data as well as mathematical methods. The crude and causal death rates were calculated and their 20-year trend was predicted using the Lee-Carter model. RESULTS: In 2035, the age group 60 years and over will reach 17.6% of the total population. Endocrine, nutritional and metabolic diseases will be the biggest causes of an increase in the rate of death in the general population. The largest decline in cause of death is for unintentional injuries. CONCLUSIONS: Noncommunicable diseases will increase as the aging population grows. Identification of their primary causal and risk factors can, therefore, contribute to prevention and control.
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Projections of Global Mortality and Burden of Disease from 2002 to 2030
Colin Mathers, Dejan Lončar · PLoS Medicine · 2006 · 11.5K citations · Full text