Unintended Effects of Autonomous Driving: A Study on Mobility Preferences in the Future

TLDR

Automated and connected cars promise reduced congestion and emissions, yet their higher comfort may paradoxically raise demand, and empirical evidence for either effect is lacking. The study surveyed 302 German participants using paired comparisons of current versus future travel modes to assess how autonomous driving influences mobility preferences. The survey found that private cars will remain the preferred mode, ownership will not become obsolete, carsharing benefits more from automation but mainly at the expense of public transport, indicating a need to enhance public transport attractiveness for sustainable mobility.

Abstract

Innovations in the mobility industry such as automated and connected cars could significantly reduce congestion and emissions by allowing the traffic to flow more freely and reducing the number of vehicles according to some researchers. However, the effectiveness of these sustainable product and service innovations is often limited by unexpected changes in consumption: some researchers thus hypothesize that the higher comfort and improved quality of time in driverless cars could lead to an increase in demand for driving with autonomous vehicles. So far, there is a lack of empirical evidence supporting either one or other of these hypotheses. To analyze the influence of autonomous driving on mobility behavior and to uncover user preferences, which serve as indicators for future travel mode choices, we conducted an online survey with a paired comparison of current and future travel modes with 302 participants in Germany. The results do not confirm the hypothesis that ownership will become an outdated model in the future. Instead they suggest that private cars, whether conventional or fully automated, will remain the preferred travel mode. At the same time, carsharing will benefit from full automation more than private cars. However, the findings indicate that the growth of carsharing will mainly be at the expense of public transport, showing that more emphasis should be placed in making public transport more attractive if sustainable mobility is to be developed.