Prevalence of Parkinson’s disease across North America

TLDR

Estimates of Parkinson’s disease prevalence in North America vary widely and are often based on small, regional samples. We aimed to estimate PD prevalence across North America by combining data from multiple studies and diverse geographic regions. We used five cohort studies from California, Minnesota, Hawaii, and Ontario, drawing on health‑care records, active ascertainment, and longitudinal follow‑up, supplemented by US Medicare data. The age‑ and sex‑specific meta‑estimates indicate a prevalence of 572 per 100,000 among those ≥45 years, corresponding to 680,000 US cases in 2010 and projected rises to 930,000 in 2020 and 1,238,000 in 2030, with regional variations and lower rates in Hawaii, and these figures represent minimum estimates and highlight heterogeneity that needs further study.

Abstract

Estimates of the prevalence of Parkinson's disease in North America have varied widely and many estimates are based on small numbers of cases and from small regional subpopulations. We sought to estimate the prevalence of Parkinson's disease in North America by combining data from a multi-study sampling strategy in diverse geographic regions and/or data sources. Five separate cohort studies in California (2), Minnesota (1), Hawaii USA (1), and Ontario, Canada (1) estimated the prevalence of PD from health-care records (3), active ascertainment through facilities, large group, and neurology practices (1), and longitudinal follow-up of a population cohort (1). US Medicare program data provided complementary estimates for the corresponding regions. Using our age- and sex-specific meta-estimates from California, Minnesota, and Ontario and the US population structure from 2010, we estimate the overall prevalence of PD among those aged ≥45 years to be 572 per 100,000 (95% confidence interval 537-614) that there were 680,000 individuals in the US aged ≥45 years with PD in 2010 and that that number will rise to approximately 930,000 in 2020 and 1,238,000 in 2030 based on the US Census Bureau population projections. Regional variations in prevalence were also observed in both the project results and the Medicare-based calculations with which they were compared. The estimates generated by the Hawaiian study were lower across age categories. These estimates can guide health-care planning but should be considered minimum estimates. Some heterogeneity exists that remains to be understood.