Multi-task Representation Learning for Travel Time Estimation

Abstract

One crucial task in intelligent transportation systems is estimating the duration of a potential trip given the origin location, destination location as well as the departure time. Most existing approaches for travel time estimation assume that the route of the trip is given, which does not hold in real-world applications since the route can be dynamically changed due to traffic conditions, user preferences, etc. As inferring the path from the origin and the destination can be time-consuming and nevertheless error-prone, it is desirable to perform origin-destination travel time estimation, which aims to predict the travel time without online route information. This problem is challenging mainly due to its limited amount of information available and the complicated spatiotemporal dependency. In this paper, we propose a MUlti-task Representation learning model for Arrival Time estimation (MURAT). This model produces meaningful representation that preserves various trip properties in the real-world and at the same time leverages the underlying road network and the spatiotemporal prior knowledge. Further-more, we propose a multi-task learning framework to utilize the path information of historical trips during the training phase which boosts the performance. Experimental results on two large-scale real-world datasets show that the proposed approach achieves clear improvements over state-of-the-art methods