Implementation of a Clinical Prediction Model Using Daily Postnatal Weight Gain, Birth Weight, and Gestational Age to Risk Stratify ROP

Abstract

PURPOSE: To develop a simple prognostic model using postnatal weight gain, birth weight, and gestational age to identify infants at risk for developing severe retinopathy of prematurity (ROP). METHODS: Medical records from two tertiary referral centers with the diagnosis code "Retinopathy of Prematurity" were evaluated. Those with a birth weight of 1,500 g or less, gestational age of 30 weeks or younger, and unstable clinical courses were included. Multivariate regression analysis was applied to transform three independent variables into a growth rate algorithm. RESULTS: Seventeen of 191 neonates had severe ROP. Weight gain of at least 23 g/d was determined as a protective cut-off value against development of severe ROP. This value maintained 100% sensitivity with 62% specificity to ensure all neonates who require treatment would be captured. Overall, the Omaha (OMA)-ROP model calculated a 58% reduction in eye examinations within the cohort. CONCLUSIONS: Inclusion of postnatal growth rate in risk stratification will minimize the number of eye examinations performed without increasing adverse visual outcomes. The OMA-ROP model predicts neonates who gain less than 23 g/d are at higher risk for developing severe ROP. Although promising, larger cohort studies may be necessary to validate and implement new screening practices among preterm infants. [J Pediatr Ophthalmol Strabismus. 2018;55(5):326-334.].