Evaluation of the effect of chickenpox vaccination on shingles epidemiology using agent-based modeling

Abstract

Our model demonstrates that over the longer time period, there will be a reduction in shingles incidence driven by the depletion of the source of shingles reactivation; however in the short to medium term some age cohorts may experience an increase in shingles incidence. Our model offers a platform to further explore the relationship between chickenpox and shingles, including analyzing the impact of different chickenpox vaccination schedules and cost-effectiveness studies.