Comparison of the accuracy and characteristics of the prognostic prediction of survival of identical terminally ill cancer patients by oncologists and palliative care physicians

Abstract

Most terminally ill cancer patients in our hospice ward are referred from hospitals for anticancer treatment. For identical terminally ill cancer patients referred from other hospitals, differences in the accuracy and characteristics of the prognostic prediction of survival by oncologists and palliative care physicians were examined. We investigated 101 patients and compared the prognostic value between the clinical prediction of survival with oncologists and prognostic tool-conducted prediction by palliative care physicians with the actual survival times; the results were then classified as accurate, pessimistic and optimistic. Prognostic prediction by palliative care physicians was closer to the actual survival time. The number of accurately predicted cases by palliative care physicians was more than that by oncologists, and the number of optimistically predicted cases by oncologists was more than that by palliative care physicians. The palliative care physicians' prediction was more accurate, while the oncologists' prediction was more optimistic.