Assessment of the Extreme Rainfall Event at Nashville, TN and the Surrounding Region on May 1–3, 2010

Abstract

Abstract This paper analyzes the May 1–3, 2010 rainfall event that affected the south‐central United States, including parts of Mississippi, Tennessee, and Kentucky. The storm is evaluated in terms of its synoptic setting, along with the temporal distributions, and spatial patterns of the rainfall. In addition, the recurrence interval of the storm is assessed and the implications for hydrologic structure designs are discussed. The event was associated with an upper‐level trough and stationary frontal boundary to the west of the rainfall region, which remained quasi‐stationary for a period of 48 h. Heavy rainfall was produced by two slow‐moving mesoscale convective complexes, combined with abundant atmospheric moisture. Storm totals exceeding 330 mm occurred within a large elongated area extending from Memphis to Nashville. Isolated rainfall totals over 480 mm were reported in some areas, with NEXRAD weather radar rainfall estimates up to 501 mm. An extreme value analysis was performed for one‐ and two‐day rainfall totals at Nashville and Brownsville, Tennessee, as well as for gridded rainfall estimates for the entire region using the Storm Precipitation Analysis System. Results suggest maximum rainfall totals for some durations during the May 1–3, 2010 event exceeded the 1,000‐year rainfall values from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Atlas 14 for a large portion of the region and reached up to 80% of the probable maximum precipitation values for some area sizes and durations.