Modeling Using Discrete Event Simulation

TLDR

Discrete event simulation is a flexible computer‑based modeling approach used in health care to improve service organization and evaluate technologies. This article offers consensus‑based guidelines for applying DES in health care, outlining the issues to which it can be applied. The guidelines walk through the modeling stages—structural development, parameter estimation, implementation, analysis, and reporting—providing best‑practice recommendations for each.

Abstract

Discrete event simulation (DES) is a form of computer-based modeling that provides an intuitive and flexible approach to representing complex systems. It has been used in a wide range of health care applications. Most early applications involved analyses of systems with constrained resources, where the general aim was to improve the organization of delivered services. More recently, DES has increasingly been applied to evaluate specific technologies in the context of health technology assessment. The aim of this article is to provide consensus-based guidelines on the application of DES in a health care setting, covering the range of issues to which DES can be applied. The article works through the different stages of the modeling process: structural development, parameter estimation, model implementation, model analysis, and representation and reporting. For each stage, a brief description is provided, followed by consideration of issues that are of particular relevance to the application of DES in a health care setting. Each section contains a number of best practice recommendations that were iterated among the authors, as well as the wider modeling task force.