Extreme heat waves under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming

Abstract

Severe, extreme, and exceptional heat waves, such as those that occurred over the Balkans (2007), France (2003), or Russia (2010), are associated with increased mortality, human discomfort and reduced labour productivity. Based on the results of a very high-resolution global model, we show that, even at 1.5 C warming, a significant increase in heat wave magnitude is expected over Africa, South America, and Southeast Asia. Compared to a 1.5 C world, under 2 C warming the frequency of extreme heat waves would double over most of the globe.