Analyzing the greenhouse gas impact potential of smallholder development actions across a global food security program

Abstract

This article analyses the greenhouse gas (GHG) impact potential of improved management practices
\nand technologies for smallholder agriculture promoted under a global food security development
\nprogram. Under ‘business-as-usual’ development, global studies on the future of agriculture to 2050
\nproject considerable increases in total food production and cultivated area. Conventional cropland
\nintensification and conversion of natural vegetation typically result in increased GHG emissions and
\nloss of carbon stocks. There is a strong need to understand the potential greenhouse gas impacts of
\nagricultural development programs intended to achieve large-scale change, and to identify pathways
\nof smallholder agricultural development that can achieve food security and agricultural production
\ngrowth without drastic increases in GHG emissions.
\nIn an analysis of 134 crop and livestock production systems in 15 countries with reported impacts
\non 4.8 million ha, improved management practices and technologies by smallholder farmers
\nsignificantly reduce GHG emission intensity of agricultural production, increase yields and reduce
\npost-harvest losses, while either decreasing or only moderately increasing net GHG emissions per
\narea. Investments in both production and post-harvest stages meaningfully reduced GHG emission
\nintensity, contributing to low emission development. We present average impacts on net GHG
\nemissions per hectare and GHG emission intensity, while not providing detailed statistics of GHG
\nimpacts at scale that are associated to additional uncertainties. While reported improvements in
\nsmallholder systems effectively reduce future GHG emissions compared to business-as-usual
\ndevelopment, these contributions are insufficient to significantly reduce net GHG emission in
\nagriculture beyond current levels, particularly if future agricultural production grows at projected
\nrates.