Preparedness for slow‐onset environmental disasters: Drawing lessons from three decades of El Niño impacts

Abstract

Abstract El Niño warm events provide a fruitful case for the study of disaster‐induced learning due to their reoccurring nature and the high level of uncertainty surrounding their impacts. The purpose of this study is to elucidate impediments and opportunities for learning from El Niño disaster planning. To achieve this, we analyse and compare two lessons learned reports from the 1997–98 and 2015–16 El Niño events. These reports also refer to the 1982–83 El Niño event, providing a longer case‐record. The findings suggest that inter‐event learning is facilitated by the existence of at least three key elements: the presence of national research programmes on El Niño mechanics and forecast capability; a development approach to disaster risk reduction, where root causes such as poverty and socio‐economic exclusion are considered, and the availability of media channels that refrain from sensationalist framing in favour of relevant and useful messages regarding appropriate mitigative strategies. Unfavourable learning conditions were identified as those characterized by a lack of political will, reliance on reactive response strategies and a lack of inter‐agency coordination.