Turning Variability into Emergent Safety: the Resilience Matrix for Providing Strong Responses to Weak Signals

Abstract

Resilience is the ability to provide strong responses to weak signals. Weak signals are uncertain information
\nthat could be read as a warning of future changes, both mishaps and opportunities. They could be the first
\nsymptoms of a big change, but they are embedded in a variability that is hidden in normal operations and
\ndifficult to distinguish from random occurrences. We propose a model, the Resilience Matrix, which could help
\nsystems cope with these weak and potentially resonant signals by means of a cyclic information transfer along
\nthe system. Front-line operators should be able to notice weak signals, understanding how the current
\nvariability is a threat that is not mitigated by available procedures and barriers. This information should be
\nshared and managed at the group level and then, if necessary, it should be transferred at the organizational
\nlevel, where procedures and barriers should be formally redesigned according to the new information. These
\nprocedures should then be tested for their effectiveness at the group level and transferred as new skills for
\noperators by means of training. This cycle is aimed at empowering people, groups and organizations, helping
\nthem to turn variability into a source for resilience.