Predicting Multi-step Citywide Passenger Demands Using Attention-based Neural Networks

Abstract

Predicting passenger pickup/dropoff demands based on historical mobility trips has been of great importance towards better vehicle distribution for the emerging mobility-on-demand (MOD) services. Prior works focused on predicting next-step passenger demands at selected locations or hotspots. However, we argue that multi-step citywide passenger demands encapsulate both time-varying demand trends and global statuses, and hence are more beneficial to avoiding demand-service mismatching and developing effective vehicle distribution/scheduling strategies. In this paper, we propose an end-to-end deep neural network solution to the prediction task. We employ the encoder-decoder framework based on convolutional and ConvLSTM units to identify complex features that capture spatiotemporal influences and pickup-dropoff interactions on citywide passenger demands. A novel attention model is incorporated to emphasize the effects of latent citywide mobility regularities. We evaluate our proposed method using real-word mobility trips (taxis and bikes) and the experimental results show that our method achieves higher prediction accuracy than the adaptations of the state-of-the-art approaches.