ECOLOGICAL-ECONOMIC (ECO-ECO) MODELLING IN THE MOUNTAINOUS RIVER BASINS: IMPACT OF LAND COVER CHANGES ON SOIL EROSION

Abstract

This research presents recently introduced approach by authors of the Ecological-Economic (Eco-Eco) modelling using the Intensity of Erosion and Outflow (IntErO) model for the assessment of soil erosion intensity and the impacts of different land covers on sediment yield. The Eco-Eco modelling approach has been applied in one of the sub-basins of the River Lim in the Northeast Montenegro: Bijeli Potok River Basin (2.9 km 2 ). Land use scenarios were simulated in the model aiming to define the optimal scenario of agricultural production. The Ecological (Eco-) modeling demonstrated that the real soil loss under current conditions is 307.16 myr -1 (105.91 per km 2 ). If agricultural production is intensified, introducing the seed potato production on 4.4 ha of the studied river basin, the model calculated a soil loss of 312.96 myr -1 as sediment yield (107.91 per km 2 ). The negative effects (caused with the intensification of agricultural production) were decreased using the measure of afforestation balancing with the identical surface of 3 ha (from meadows to forests). The model calculated that afforestation would result in a decrease of sediment yield to 306.46 myr -1 (105.67 per km 2 ). The Economic (-Eco) modeling revealed that the investment (total cost) of 3,385 per hectare is needed for the establishment of the intensive agricultural -seed potato production. Market value of the final product is calculated to be 8,500 per hectare annually (yield of 17 tons per hectare); Profit 5,115; Net profit: 4,558. As an integral part of Eco-Eco modelling, the investment for the protection of the area with afforestation (implemented through the Government measures).