United States non-cooperation and the Paris agreement

TLDR

The Trump administration withdrew the US from the Paris Agreement in June 2017, raising concerns that the US may miss domestic emission targets and that other parties might backtrack on their pledges. The study evaluates the threat posed by US non‑cooperation to the Paris Agreement from an international‑relations perspective. The authors propose mitigation strategies such as direct engagement by the EU with emerging economies like China and India, and domestic climate policies that benefit traditional opponents of ambitious climate policy. They find that US non‑cooperation does not significantly affect US emissions or undermine nationally determined contributions, but it poses a serious threat to global climate finance by raising barriers to cooperation.

Abstract

In June 2017, the Trump administration decided to withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement, a landmark climate agreement adopted in 2015 by 195 nations. The exit of the US has not just raised concern that the US will miss its domestic emission reduction targets, but also that other parties to the Paris Agreement might backtrack on their initial pledges regarding emission reductions or financial contributions. Here we assess the magnitude of the threat that US non-cooperation poses to the Paris Agreement from an international relations perspective. We argue that US non-cooperation does not fundamentally alter US emissions, which are unlikely to rise even in the absence of new federal climate policies. Nor does it undermine nationally determined contributions under pledge and review, as the Paris Agreement has introduced a new logic of domestically driven climate policies and the cost of low-carbon technologies keeps falling. However, US non-participation in raising climate finance could raise high barriers to global climate cooperation in the future. Political strategies to mitigate these threats include direct engagement by climate leaders such as the European Union with key emerging economies, notably China and India, and domestic climate policies that furnish benefits to traditional opponents of ambitious climate policy.Key policy insights US non-cooperation need not be a major threat to pledge and review under the Paris Agreement.US non-cooperation is a serious threat to climate finance.Deeper engagement with emerging economies offers new opportunities for global climate policy.