An assessment of the global impact of 21st century land use change on soil erosion

TLDR

Human activity and related land use change are the primary cause of accelerated soil erosion, which has substantial implications for nutrient and carbon cycling, land productivity and worldwide socio‑economic conditions. The study presents a high‑resolution global potential soil erosion model and estimates the spatial and temporal effects of land use change between 2001 and 2012, including the potential offset from global conservation practices. The model integrates remote sensing, GIS modelling and census data at 250 × 250 m resolution. We estimate 35.9 Pg yr⁻¹ of soil eroded in 2012, at least two times lower than previous reference values, and find that global soil erosion has increased driven by cropland expansion, with greatest increases in Sub‑Saharan Africa, South America and Southeast Asia, and highest rates in least developed economies.

Abstract

Abstract Human activity and related land use change are the primary cause of accelerated soil erosion, which has substantial implications for nutrient and carbon cycling, land productivity and in turn, worldwide socio-economic conditions. Here we present an unprecedentedly high resolution (250 × 250 m) global potential soil erosion model, using a combination of remote sensing, GIS modelling and census data. We challenge the previous annual soil erosion reference values as our estimate, of 35.9 Pg yr −1 of soil eroded in 2012, is at least two times lower. Moreover, we estimate the spatial and temporal effects of land use change between 2001 and 2012 and the potential offset of the global application of conservation practices. Our findings indicate a potential overall increase in global soil erosion driven by cropland expansion. The greatest increases are predicted to occur in Sub-Saharan Africa, South America and Southeast Asia. The least developed economies have been found to experience the highest estimates of soil erosion rates.