Reliability evaluation of PV power systems with consideration of time‐varying factors

Abstract

With the large‐scale grid‐connected operation of solar photovoltaic (PV) power systems in recent years, the accurate assessment of its reliability level has received increasing focus. This study obtained a probability model for system power output by analysing the structural characteristics of the PV power system and by examining its component failure mode and the effect of the component failure mode on the output power. The algorithmic model for the reliability evaluation of the PV power system was established based on the sequential Monte Carlo method, the weather conditions, component ageing, and light intensity. Finally, the six states model and their reliability indices of the PV power system were studied considering the resource constraint and the structural characteristics of the PV power system. The results showed that the model can fully reflect the actual operation reliability of a PV power system.