Thailand Energy Outlook for the Thailand Integrated Energy Blueprint (TIEB)

Abstract

Fluctuations of world's economy and energy prices, political conflicts, and environmental impact are among the most significant factors for energy consumption and provision. Therefore, the Ministry of Energy launched a set of five energy policies, namely Thailand Integrated Energy Blueprint (TIEB), in the year end of 2015 addressing the changing and challenging contexts that Thailand will encounter in the future while keeping the balance between financial cost and benefit and the potential environmental impacts. This paper shows current and future energy state analysis and forecast for primary source of energy using an energy accounting model, LEAP [1]. Two scenarios, Thailand Integrated Energy Blueprint (TIEB) and Possible Risk (RISK) scenario, are analyzed to illustrate the picture of Thailand's energy sector from 2014 to 2036. The TIEB reflects the objectives to be achieved within 2015-2036 timeframe while the RISK shows some conditions that preventing the TIEB to realize its goals. In 2036, Thailand's energy consumption is forecasted to increase 1.18% and 2.13% per year on average for TIEB and RISK scenarios, respectively. Under both scenarios, industrial and transportation sectors continue to be the most energy consuming sectors. Especially for transport sector that relies largely on petroleum products regardless of the rising consumption of bioethanol and biodiesel. TIEB will help decreasing the net energy import from nearly 84% [2] down to 70% of all primary energy demand in 2036. The greenhouse gas (GHG) intensity is currently 24 metric tons per million baht and would be down to 15.2 and 19.8 metric tons per million baht for TIEB and RISK, respectively.