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Recounting the Dead: An Analysis of ISAF Caused Civilian Casualties in Afghanistan

Armed Forces & Society · 2017 · 28 citations · 15 references

Open access

TL;DR

In conflicts against insurgents, civilian casualties create a dilemma of balancing security and stability, and in Afghanistan ISAF has prioritized minimizing such deaths, yet data‑driven analyses of ISAF‑caused casualties have been scarce. This study investigates ISAF‑caused civilian casualties between 2010 and 2013 to assess changes in ISAF lethality. The analysis incorporates civilian casualty events and compares airpower versus on‑ground operations. Overall civilian casualties decreased, but the reduction was offset by the tactic employed, and the study discusses implications for military adaptation and future population‑centric operations.

Abstract

In wars fought against insurgents, civilian casualties present the challenging dilemma of balancing security and stability while targeting insurgents who operate within the civilian population. In Afghanistan, the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) has made minimizing civilian casualties a top-tier strategic issue. Yet beyond annual reports, there has been a lack of data-driven analysis into the number of civilians killed by ISAF operations. This research investigates ISAF-caused civilian casualties between 2010 and 2013, incorporating civilian casualty events to investigate changes in ISAF “lethality.” This analysis finds that although ISAF-caused civilian casualties decreased overall, this was mitigated by the tactic employed (airpower vs. on the ground operations). The implications of this analysis for theories of military adaptation, future population-centric operations, and current military operations (e.g., in Iraq and Syria) are discussed.