Development and Validation of a Nomogram to Predict the Benefit of Adjuvant Radiotherapy for Patients with Resected Gastric Cancer

Abstract

<b>Background:</b> The US guidelines for gastric cancer (GC) recommend adjuvant radiotherapy (ART) combined with 5-fluorouracil as a standard treatment for patients with resected locally advanced GC. However, patient selection criteria for optimizing the use of adjuvant therapies are lacking. In this study, we developed and validated a nomogram to predict the individualized overall survival (OS) benefit of ART among patients with resected ≥stage IB GC. <b>Patients and Methods:</b> The 2002-2006 Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) data of 5,206 patients with resected GC were used as a training set for the development of a nomogram. The 2007-2008 SEER data of 1,986 patients with resected GC were used as validation data. <b>Results:</b> In the multivariate analysis weighted by inverse propensity score, the efficacy of ART varied by the ratio of positive to examined nodes (<i>P_interaction</i> <0.01). The magnitude of this difference was included in the nomogram with associated prognosticators to predict the 3- and 5-year OS with and without ART. The nomogram showed significant prognostic superiority to the 8^th TNM staging in the training set (Concordance index, 0.68 versus 0.65; <i>P</i><0.01) and the validation set (Concordance index, 0.68 versus 0.64; <i>P</i><0.01). Moreover, the calibration was accurate, and the actual efficacy of ART was positively correlated with the nomogram-estimated survival benefit from ART (<i>P_interaction</i> <0.01 and <i>P_interaction</i> =0.02 in the training set and the validation set, respectively). <b>Conclusion:</b> The nomogram can aid individualized clinical decision making by estimating the 3- and 5-year OS and potential benefits of ART among patients with resected GC.