Predictability of LNG Vapor Dispersion from Catastrophic Spills Onto Water: An Assessment

Abstract

The purpose of this study is: (1) To provide a detailed description of the mathematical models upon which published predictions of LNG vapor travel downwind of catastrophic LNG spills onto water have been based; (2) Using these models, to estimate the maximum downwind travel of flammable LNG vapor/air mixtures for a 'standard' spill scenario, so that valid comparison can be made of the results obtained when different models are used to describe the same event; (3) To identify the reason for differences in predictions which occur when the models are used to describe the same event, and to assess the technical credibility of the methods which results in such differences; and (4) To define the present state of the art in predictability of LNG vapor dispersion from catastrophic spills onto water, with emphasis on the extent to which the present state of the art justifies reliance on existing published predictions in formulating LNG safety management programs.