Very short-term wind forecasting for Tasmanian power generation

Abstract

Summary form only given. This paper describes very short-term wind prediction for power generation, utilising a case study from Tasmania, Australia. Windpower presently is the fastest growing power generation sector in the world. However, windpower is intermittent. To be able to trade efficiently, make best use of transmission line capability and address concerns with system frequency in a reregulated system, accurate very short-term forecasts are essential. The research introduces a novel approach the application of an adaptive neural fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) to forecasting a wind time series. Over the very short-term forecast interval, both wind speed and wind direction are important parameters. To be able to be gain the most from a forecast on this time scale, the turbines must be directed towards on oncoming wind. For this reason, this paper forecasts wind vectors, rather than wind speed or power output