Validation of Calibrated Energy Models: Common Errors

TLDR

Smart technologies and abundant smart‑meter data are improving energy model quality and the effectiveness of energy conservation measures. The article examines how common errors in validation metrics can mislead users into believing building energy models are properly calibrated. The study reviews established guidelines—ASHRAE 14‑2014, IPMVP, and FEMP—for measuring building energy model accuracy.

Abstract

Nowadays, there is growing interest in all the smart technologies that provide us with information and knowledge about the human environment. In the energy field, thanks to the amount of data received from smart meters and devices and the progress made in both energy software and computers, the quality of energy models is gradually improving and, hence, also the suitability of Energy Conservation Measures (ECMs). For this reason, the measurement of the accuracy of building energy models is an important task, because once the model is validated through a calibration procedure, it can be used, for example, to apply and study different strategies to reduce its energy consumption in maintaining human comfort. There are several agencies that have developed guidelines and methodologies to establish a measure of the accuracy of these models, and the most widely recognized are: ASHRAE Guideline 14-2014, the International Performance Measurement and Verification Protocol (IPMVP) and the Federal Energy Management Program (FEMP). This article intends to shed light on these validation measurements (uncertainty indices) by focusing on the typical mistakes made, as these errors could produce a false belief that the models used are calibrated.