Projections of the future occurrence, distribution, and seasonality of three <i>Vibrio</i> species in the Chesapeake Bay under a high‐emission climate change scenario

Abstract

Illness caused by pathogenic strains of <i>Vibrio</i> bacteria incurs significant economic and health care costs in many areas around the world. In the Chesapeake Bay, the two most problematic species are <i>V</i>. <i>vulnificus</i> and <i>V</i>. <i>parahaemolyticus</i>, which cause infection both from exposure to contaminated water and consumption of contaminated seafood. We used existing <i>Vibrio</i> habitat models, four global climate models, and a recently developed statistical downscaling framework to project the spatiotemporal probability of occurrence of <i>V</i>. <i>vulnificus</i> and <i>V</i>. <i>cholerae</i> in the estuarine environment, and the mean concentration of <i>V</i>. <i>parahaemolyticus</i> in oysters in the Chesapeake Bay by the end of the 21st century. Results showed substantial future increases in season length and spatial habitat for <i>V</i>. <i>vulnificus</i> and <i>V</i>. <i>parahaemolyticus</i>, while projected increase in <i>V</i>. <i>cholerae</i> habitat was less marked and more spatially heterogeneous. Our findings underscore the need for spatially variable inputs into models of climate impacts on <i>Vibrios</i> in estuarine environments. Overall, economic costs associated with <i>Vibrios</i> in the Chesapeake Bay, such as incidence of illness and management measures on the shellfish industry, may increase under climate change, with implications for recreational and commercial uses of the ecosystem.