Effective prediction model for Hungarian small‐scale solar power output

Abstract

Owing to critical role of photovoltaic (PV) power in oncoming energy market, an accurate PV power forecasting model is demanded. In this paper, an effective solar power prediction model composed of variational mode decomposition, information‐theoretic feature selection, and forecasting engine with high learning capability is proposed. The feature selection method is based on information‐theoretic criteria and an optimisation algorithm. The forecasting engine is multilayer perceptron neural network equipped with modified Levenberg–Marquardt learning algorithm. An evolutionary algorithm is also incorporated into the training mechanism of the forecasting engine to enhance its learning capability. Effectiveness of the proposed PV prediction model is illustrated on a Hungarian solar power plant.