Optimization of Empirical Storm Surge Forecast – Modelling of High Resolution Wind Fields

Abstract

Aim of this study is to improve the empirical storm surge forecast for the coast of Lower Saxony using modelled high resolution wind fields over the North Sea.The hindcast of historic storms is done by Deutscher Wetterdienst (German Weather Service, DWD) using their operational model chain (GME, COSMO-EU, COSMO-DE).COSMO was run in forecast and in nudging mode.The NLWKN-Coastal Research Station used the modelled wind fields to optimize the empirical storm surge forecast with a variety of empirical and neural network approaches.