Predicting the evolution of communities in social networks using structural and temporal features

Abstract

During the last years, there is increasing interest in analyzing social networks and modeling their dynamics at different scales. This work focuses on predicting the future form of communities, which represent the mesoscale structure of networks, while the communities arise as a result of user interaction. We employ several structural and temporal features to represent communities, along with their past form, that are used to formulate a supervised learning task to predict whether a community will continue as currently is, shrink, grow or completely disappear. To test our methodology, we created a real-life social network dataset consisting of an excerpt of posts from the Mathematics Stack Exchange Q&A site. In the experiments, special care is taken in handling the class imbalance in the dataset and in investigating how the past evolutions of a community affect predictions.