Cost Projection of State of the Art Lithium-Ion Batteries for Electric Vehicles Up to 2030

TLDR

The automotive industry's climate impact can be mitigated by shifting to battery electric vehicles, but adoption hinges on consumers’ willingness to pay the higher cost of traction batteries. The study aims to forecast 2030 battery pack costs by accounting for material‑science advances and market‑driven price erosion. Costs are projected using process‑based calculations for NMC and silicon‑based lithium‑ion batteries, incorporating learning‑curve effects to reflect market scaling. The $100/kWh threshold is expected to be achieved by 2020‑2025 for silicon‑based batteries and 2025‑2030 for NMC, potentially accelerating global EV adoption.

Abstract

The negative impact of the automotive industry on climate change can be tackled by changing from fossil driven vehicles towards battery electric vehicles with no tailpipe emissions. However their adoption mainly depends on the willingness to pay for the extra cost of the traction battery. The goal of this paper is to predict the cost of a battery pack in 2030 when considering two aspects: firstly a decade of research will ensure an improvement in material sciences altering a battery’s chemical composition. Secondly by considering the price erosion due to the production cost optimization, by maturing of the market and by evolving towards to a mass-manufacturing situation. The cost of a lithium Nickel Manganese Cobalt Oxide (NMC) battery (Cathode: NMC 6:2:2 ; Anode: graphite) as well as silicon based lithium-ion battery (Cathode: NMC 6:2:2 ; Anode: silicon alloy), expected to be on the market in 10 years, will be predicted to tackle the first aspect. The second aspect will be considered by combining process-based cost calculations with learning curves, which takes the increasing battery market into account. The 100 dollar/kWh sales barrier will be reached respectively between 2020-2025 for silicon based lithium-ion batteries and 2025–2030 for NMC batteries, which will give a boost to global electric vehicle adoption.