Changing climate shifts timing of European floods

TLDR

While many believe climate change increases flood risk, consistent evidence for magnitude changes is lacking. The study investigates whether a warming climate influences river flood timing. Analysis of 50 years of European flood timing revealed climate‑driven shifts: earlier spring snowmelt floods in northeastern Europe, later winter floods near the North Sea and Mediterranean, and earlier winter floods in western Europe. Blöschl et al., Science, this issue p.

Abstract

Flooding along the river Will a warming climate affect river floods? The prevailing sentiment is yes, but a consistent signal in flood magnitudes has not been found. Blöschl et al. analyzed the timing of river floods in Europe over the past 50 years and found clear patterns of changes in flood timing that can be ascribed to climate effects (see the Perspective by Slater and Wilby). These variations include earlier spring snowmelt floods in northeastern Europe, later winter floods around the North Sea and parts of the Mediterranean coast owing to delayed winter storms, and earlier winter floods in western Europe caused by earlier soil moisture maxima. Science , this issue p. 588 see also p. 552