Reduction of initial shock in decadal predictions using a new initialization strategy

Abstract

Abstract A novel full‐field initialization strategy based on the dimension‐reduced projection four‐dimensional variational data assimilation (DRP‐4DVar) is proposed to alleviate the well‐known initial shock occurring in the early years of decadal predictions. It generates consistent initial conditions, which best fit the monthly mean oceanic analysis data along the coupled model trajectory in 1 month windows. Three indices to measure the initial shock intensity are also proposed. Results indicate that this method does reduce the initial shock in decadal predictions by Flexible Global Ocean‐Atmosphere‐Land System model, Grid‐point version 2 (FGOALS‐g2) compared with the three‐dimensional variational data assimilation‐based nudging full‐field initialization for the same model and is comparable to or even better than the different initialization strategies for other fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models. Better hindcasts of global mean surface air temperature anomalies can be obtained than in other FGOALS‐g2 experiments. Due to the good model response to external forcing and the reduction of initial shock, higher decadal prediction skill is achieved than in other CMIP5 models.