LACIE: An experiment in global crop forecasting

Abstract

The author has identified the following significant results. Both the accuracy and efficiency with which LACIE crop survey estimates were made have shown significant improvement in three years. In the U.S. and U.S.S.R. winter wheat regions, the original accuracy goals were met or exceeded, with 90/90 estimates achieved in the United States 1.5 to 2 months before harvest. Additionally, all available accuracy parameters indicate 90/90 estimates for the U.S.S.R. total crop. Key technology problems were identified during phase 2 with spring wheat in the United States and Canada which prevented the attainment of 90/90 accuracies in these regions. Technology solutions developed and tested in phase 3 partly resolved these issues with a significant improvement realized in the accuracy of the spring wheat area estimates.