Occupational employment growth through 1990.

Abstract

The Bureau of Labor Statistics has developed three sets of occupational employment projections for 1978 to 1990 based on varying outlooks of the future economy.' Although the assumptions that differentiate these scenarios result in various rates of growth for most jobs, changes in the occupational composition of total employment during these years are similar for all versions and generally correspond to past trends . Employment continues to expand more rapidly in service occupations than it does in other categories, and the number of farmworkers still declines . White-collar jobs increase faster than total employment in each scenario, and the number of blue-collar jobs grows slower than the total. However, growth rates are expected to vary greatly within these broad categories, because demographic changes, technological developments, and shifts in the demand for products and services affect major occupational categories differently . For example, anticipated decreases in the teenage population and increases in the number of elderly persons in the 1980's will reduce the need for secondary schoolteachers while increasing it for nurses . Although the occupational structure of total employment in 1990 is similar in each version of the economy, some occupations are more sensitive than others to the differences in underlying assumptions. Generally, jobs which are concentrated in manufacturing industries that produce durable goods are most affected, as projected increases in the demand for these goods vary greatly among the scenarios. In contrast, occupations which are concentrated in government are relatively unaffected, because projections of its total employment change very little from one version to another. None of the scenarios attempts to forecast cyclical employment fluctuations . This article summarizes projections from the first national industry-occupation matrix to be developed on the basis of staffing patterns from the Occupational Employment Statistics Surveys. Previous matrices were based on the decennial census .' The matrix is a major input to the Bureau's occupational outlook program which conducts research on future occupational requirements and resources for use in planning education and training programs and for career guidance and counseling. The results of the research are published in the Occupational Outlook Handbook and the Occupational Outlook Quarterly, which also contain information on the nature of work in different occupations, educational and training needs, earnings and working conditions, and other subjects of interest to people who are planning careers. The projections described in this article will be used in the 1982-83 edition of the Handbook, scheduled for release in spring 1982 . Max L. Carey is an economist in the Office of Economic Growth and Employment Projections, Bureau of Labor Statistics.