Increasing burden of liver cancer despite extensive use of antiviral agents in a hepatitis B virus‐endemic population

TLDR

Most liver disease and liver cancer deaths worldwide are caused by HBV and HCV, yet population‑level data on the impact of HBV treatment are scarce. The study analyzed Korean national death certificate data from 1999 to 2013 using Joinpoint regression to assess mortality trends. Liver disease deaths fell 62 % while liver cancer deaths rose 18 % in absolute numbers, with a 10 % increase in liver‑cancer crude death rate, coinciding with a dramatic rise in antiviral prescriptions and an older age at death, indicating that extended survival from HBV treatment may raise liver‑cancer burden. © 2017 Hepatology 66:1454–1463.

Abstract

Most mortalities from liver disease and liver cancer worldwide are attributable to hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus. Despite remarkable advances in the treatment of HBV over past decades, limited population‐level data are available regarding its impact on burden of liver disease and liver cancer. Mortality data from liver disease and liver cancer were obtained from the national death certificate database of Korea, an HBV‐endemic country, between 1999 and 2013, and were analyzed by Joinpoint analysis. For liver disease, number of annual deaths decreased by 62.3% (95% confidence interval [CI], 62.0‐62.6), crude death rate (CDR) decreased by 64.6% (95% CI, 64.3‐64.9) from 21.2 to 7.5 per 100,000 population, and age‐standardized death rate (ADR) declined by 75.0% (95% CI, 74.7‐75.3), between 1999 and 2013. In contrast, for liver cancer, number of annual deaths increased by 17.8% (95% CI, 17.6‐18.0) and CDR increased by 10.2% (95% CI, 10.0‐10.4) from 20.5 to 22.6, although ADR decreased by 26.9% (95% CI, 26.6‐27.2). The annual number of patients receiving oral antiviral agents against HBV increased from 1,716 to 187,226 during the study period. The increase in mean age at death from liver disease was significantly greater than that from liver cancer (8.8 vs. 6.1 years: P = 0.02). Conclusion : Marked reduction in liver disease mortality by widespread use of antiviral treatments against HBV may increase the life expectancy and number of patients at risk of developing liver cancer, inadvertently leading to increased burden of liver cancer in an HBV‐endemic population. The competing nature between death from liver disease and that from liver cancer should be carefully considered in establishing a health care policy. (H epatology 2017;66:1454–1463).