China's next renewable energy revolution: goals and mechanisms in the 13th Five Year Plan for energy

TLDR

China has released its 13th Five‑Year Plan (2016‑2020) for energy and sector‑specific plans, but capacity additions alone will not secure the country’s renewable‑energy transition. This paper reviews those plans and supporting policy documents aimed at boosting renewable‑energy use in China. Key mechanisms include improving grid interconnectivity and flexibility, deploying market tools to spread demand, and increasing consumption of renewable power. Assuming China meets its wind and PV growth targets, annual additions during the 13th FYP will average 16 GW of wind and 13.5 GW of PV—below recent growth rates.

Abstract

Abstract Over the past few months, China has published its development plans for the 13th Five Year Plan [ FYP ] period [2016–2020] for energy, and separately for the electricity sector, renewable energy, hydro, wind, solar, and biomass energy. Here, we review these policies, as well as a number of key supporting policy documents that aim at increased renewable energy use in China. Presuming that China will not overshoot its growth targets for wind and PV , annual additions over the 13th FYP period will average 16 GW for wind and 13.5 GW for PV , well below the growth levels seen in recent years. The key to success in China's continued transition to renewable energy, however, does not lie in such capacity additions alone. At least as important will be the efforts at improving grid interconnectedness, flexibility of generating capacity and the grid, market mechanisms that will reduce and spread electricity demand, and better enable renewables to compete, and efforts at increasing the level of consumption of the renewable power generated.