Risk factors and short-term projections for serotype-1 poliomyelitis incidence in Pakistan: A spatiotemporal analysis

Abstract

Spatiotemporal variation in immunization performance and population movement patterns are important determinants of historical poliomyelitis incidence in Pakistan; however, movement dynamics were less influential in predicting future cases, at a time when the polio map is shrinking. Results from the regression models we present are being used to help plan vaccination campaigns and transit vaccination strategies in Pakistan.