Next steps in geoengineering scenario research: limited deployment scenarios and beyond

Abstract

Climate engineering has received increasing attention, but its discussion has remained on the sidelines of mainstream climate policy. The policy relevance of this previously exotic option is poised to rise because of the gap between the temperature goals of the Paris Agreement and slow global mitigation efforts. It is therefore crucial to understand the risks and benefits of the proposed schemes, and the social implications of policy choices. Assessment of the risks and benefits of solar geoengineering strongly depends on scenarios, but previous scenarios have not reflected the full range of social choices. In light of concerns over risks, a newer set of scenarios is desirable, which represents both uncertainties and social choices more fully. Borrowing and extending lessons from recent literature on the new community climate scenario process, we envision a possible scenario-building process that combines interdisciplinary scholarship with the involvement of stakeholders and citizens. The resultant scenarios would better characterize uncertainties of, and policy choices for, solar geoengineering, and foster critical appraisal of its risks and benefits. Such societal choices might include not only total ban and large-scale deployment, but also limited deployment, which has received less attention in the scenario literature. The interaction between scenario and governance research would be able to highlight the central issues at stake, including ethical, social, and political dimensions.Key policy insightsA more comprehensive assessment of solar geoengineering is necessary to evaluate its risks and benefits, necessitating new scenario researchIt is crucial to reflect the full span of policy choices and uncertainties with interdisciplinary collaboration in such scenariosSuch societal choices might include not only total ban and large-scale deployment, but also limited deployment, which has received less attention in the scenario literatureParticipatory scenario research would enable incorporating the concerns and opinions of stakeholders and citizens in scenario creation