The use of mortality statistics as a proxy indicator for the impact of the AIDS epidemic on the Thai population.

Abstract

This study in 1997-98 explored the use of mortality statistics as a proxy indicator for the demographic impact of the AIDS epidemic in Thailand. Data for 1989-96 were obtained from the death registry by age gender province and cause of death and AIDS surveillance system for Thailand and the provinces of Chiang Mai Chiang Rai Phayao Narathiwat Yala and Trang. AIDS attributable excess mortality accounts for potential increases in external causes of death. Findings indicate that the Northern Provinces had very high increases in mortality. Mortality increases differed by age gender and province. The highest increases were among 20-24 year old females from Chiang Rai. Excess mortality increased from 0.83/1000 to 8.46/1000 during 1990-96. Deaths attributable to AIDS accounted for 20-25% of deaths nationally and 40-50% among persons aged 25-29 years. 80% of all deaths among 25-29 year olds in the North were attributable to AIDS. Life expectancy declined considerably among males and females in Northern Provinces. It is expected that HIV infections will reach 1 million persons by 1996. During 1996 and the year 2000 AIDS mortality will increase by at least 286000 nationally and by 31500 in Chiang Mai 31000 in Chiang Rai and 15000 in Phayao. Data suggest that only about 33% of AIDS cases are reported to the Ministry of Public Health of which only 33% are reported as AIDS deaths. AIDS death and case rates stabilized and declined by the mid-1990s while mortality continued to increase. Population growth may decline in the North as a joint effect of AIDS deaths and family planning.