Electoral Effects of Biased Media: Russian Television in Ukraine

TLDR

The study exploits exogenous variation in the availability of Russian analog television in Ukraine to examine how a biased media source with a clear political agenda influences political behavior and attitudes. The authors use this exogenous variation as an instrument to isolate the causal effect of the Russian analog signal on electoral outcomes and voter attitudes. Russian television significantly boosted support for pro‑Russian parties and candidates in the 2014 Ukrainian elections, an effect driven by persuasion rather than mobilization, and it amplified polarization by influencing pro‑Russian voters more strongly while having little or even counter‑effect on pro‑Western voters.

Abstract

Abstract We use plausibly exogenous variation in the availability of the Russian analog television signal in Ukraine to study how a media source with a conspicuous political agenda impacts political behavior and attitudes. Using highly disaggregated election data and an original survey, we estimate that Russian television substantially increased average electoral support for parties and candidates with a “pro‐Russian” agenda in the 2014 presidential and parliamentary elections. Evidence suggests that this effect is attributable to persuasion rather than differential mobilization. The effectiveness of biased media varied in a politically consequential way: Its impact was largest on voters with strong pro‐Russian priors but was less effective, and to some degree even counter‐effective, in persuading those with strong pro‐Western priors. Our finding suggests that exposing an already polarized society to a biased media source can result in even deeper polarization.