Comparative Epidemiology of Human Fatal Infections with Novel, High (H5N6 and H5N1) and Low (H7N9 and H9N2) Pathogenicity Avian Influenza A Viruses

Abstract

This study aimed to assess the mortality risks for human infection with high (HPAI) and low (LPAI) pathogenicity avian influenza viruses. The HPAI case fatality rate (CFR) was far higher than the LPAI CFR [66.0% (293/444) vs. 68.75% (11/16) vs. 40.4% (265/656) vs. 0.0% (0/18) in the cases with H5N1, H5N6, H7N9, and H9N2 viruses, respectively; p < 0.001]. Similarly, the CFR of the index cases was greater than the secondary cases with H5N1 [100% (43/43) vs. 43.3% (42/97), p < 0.001]. Old age [22.5 vs. 17 years for H5N1, p = 0.018; 61 vs. 49 years for H7H9, p < 0.001], concurrent diseases [18.8% (15/80) vs. 8.33% (9/108) for H5N1, p = 0.046; 58.6% (156/266) vs. 34.8% (135/388) for H7H9, p < 0.001], delayed confirmation [13 vs. 6 days for H5N1, p < 0.001; 10 vs. 8 days for H7N9, p = 0.011] in the fatalities and survivors, were risk factors for deaths. With regard to the H5N1 clusters, exposure to poultry [67.4% (29/43) vs. 45.2% (19/42), p = 0.039] was the higher risk for the primary than the secondary deaths. In conclusion, old age, comorbidities, delayed confirmation, along with poultry exposure are the major risks contributing to fatal outcomes in human HPAI and LPAI infections.