Cautions on using the Before-After-Control-Impact design in environmental effects monitoring programs

Abstract

Often the Before-After-Control-Impact (BACI) design is suggested as being a statistically powerful experimental design in environmental impact studies. If the timing and location of the impact are known and adequate pre-data are collected, the BACI design is considered optimal to help isolate the effect of the development from natural variability. This paper presents 9 years of results from a long-term BACI experiment tested using a range of statistical models and post-impact monitoring designs. To explore suboptimal designs that are often utilized in environmental effects monitoring, the same data were also explored assuming either no control system was available (Before-After only), or that no pre-impact data were available (Control-Impact only). The results of the BACI design were robust to the statistical model used, and the BACI design was able to detect effects from the impact that the two suboptimal designs failed to detect. However, the BACI design demonstrated different conclusions depending on the number and configuration of post-impact years included in the analysis. Our results reinforce the idea that caution should be employed when using, or interpreting results from, a BACI design in an environmental impact study, but demonstrate that a well-designed BACI remains one of the best models for environmental effects monitoring programs.