The cost of free health care for all Kenyans: assessing the financial sustainability of contributory and non-contributory financing mechanisms

Abstract

The results show that SHI is financially sustainable (Sustainability in this study is used to mean that expenditure does not outstrip revenue.) (revenues and expenditure match) within the first five years of implementation, but it becomes less sustainable with time. Modelling for a non-contributory scenario, on the other hand, showed greater sustainability both in the short- and long-term. The financial resource requirements for universal access to health care through general government revenue are compared with a contributory health insurance scheme approach. Although both funding options would require considerable government subsidies, given the magnitude of the informal sector in Kenya and their limited financial capacity, a tax-funded system would be less costly and more sustainable in the long-term than an insurance scheme approach. However, more innovative financing for health care as well as giving the health sector higher priority in government expenditure will be required to make the non-contributory financing mechanism more sustainable.