Assessment of sustainable development in transition

Abstract

The article deals with changes induced by the transformation of centrally planned economy relations into a market economy. The article provides an analysis of economic transition ex periences over more than a decade. Implementing an economic transition and structural adjustment policies involves complex irreversible economic, ecological and social processes. Such policies rarely appear to be adequate for meeting the main goals of sustainable development. Countries of the former Soviet Union are today expected to perform the reforms of institutional structures and the market system within a few years that have taken Western countries centuries to develop. The short and systemic collapse of the command or centrally planned economy enables one to revise the knowledge of how socio-economic systems react to a sudden rise of external and internal changes. However, scientists that assess the processes in question encounter serious difficulties. Direct analysis of the aggregated indicators rarely reveals the correlation of the processes and explains their changes. Recently, new and more complex models have been applied; usually they are more sensitive with regard to potential observation errors, and their application lowers the complexity of forecast and the uncertainty of outcomes. The article presents the models of the aggregated indicators that assess their correlation and time-related alteration. Our analysis is based on empirical data on pollution variation, income, energy consumption and some social indicators of Lithuanian residents; also, it examines the ecological, economic and social components of development. The analysis is grounded on models and examines their evolu tion and the compatibility of the processes with the priorities of sustainable development.