Sunflower crop and climate change: vulnerability, adaptation, and mitigation potential from case-studies in Europe

Abstract

Climate change is characterized by higher temperatures, elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations, extreme climatic hazards, and less water available for agriculture. Sunflower, a spring-sown crop often cultivated in southern and eastern regions of Europe, could be more vulnerable to the direct effect of heat stress at anthesis and drought during its growing cycle, both factors resulting in severe yield loss, oil content decrease, and fatty acid alterations. Adaptations through breeding (earliness, stress tolerance), crop management (planting dates), and shifting of growing areas could be developed, assessed and combined to partly cope with these negative impacts. New cultivation opportunities could be expected in northern parts of Europe where sunflower is not grown presently and where it could usefully contribute to diversify cereal-based cropping systems. In addition, sunflower crop could participate to the mitigation solution as a low greenhouse gas emitter compared to cereals and oilseed rape. Sunflower crop models should be revised to account for these emerging environmental factors in order to reduce the uncertainties in yield and oil predictions. The future of sunflower in Europe is probably related to its potential adaptation to climate change but also to its competitiveness and attractiveness for food and energy.